In the largest survey of its kind, 2,778 researchers who had published in top-tier artificial intelligence (AI) venues gave predictions on the pace of AI progress and the nature and impacts of advanced AI systems The aggregate forecasts give at least a 50% chance of AI systems achieving several milestones by 2028, including autonomously constructing a payment processing site from scratch, creating a song indistinguishable from a new song by a popular musician, and autonomously downloading and fine-tuning a large language model. If science continues undisrupted, the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10% by 2027, and 50% by 2047. The latter estimate is 13 years earlier than that reached in a similar survey we conducted only one year earlier [Grace et al., 2022]. However, the chance of all human occupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116 (compared to 2164 in the 2022 survey). Most respondents expressed substantial uncertainty about the long-term value of AI progress: While 68.3% thought good outcomes from superhuman AI are more likely than bad, of these net optimists 48% gave at least a 5% chance of extremely bad outcomes such as human extinction, and 59% of net pessimists gave 5% or more to extremely good outcomes. Between 38% and 51% of respondents gave at least a 10% chance to advanced AI leading to outcomes as bad as human extinction. More than half suggested that "substantial" or "extreme" concern is warranted about six different AI-related scenarios, including misinformation, authoritarian control, and inequality. There was disagreement about whether faster or slower AI progress would be better for the future of humanity. However, there was broad agreement that research aimed at minimizing potential risks from AI systems ought to be prioritized more.

翻译：在迄今规模最大的同类调查中，2778位曾在顶级人工智能（AI）期刊发表论文的研究人员对AI发展速度、高级AI系统的性质及影响进行了预测。综合预测显示，到2028年，AI系统有至少50%的概率实现多项里程碑式突破，包括：从零开始自主构建支付处理网站、创作与流行歌手新歌无法区分的歌曲，以及自主下载并微调大型语言模型。若科学持续发展不受阻碍，到2027年，无辅助机器在所有任务上超越人类的概率估计为10%，到2047年则达50%。后一估计值比我们仅一年前开展的类似调查（Grace等人，2022）提前了13年。然而，所有人类职业实现完全自动化的概率预计到2037年达10%，到2116年（而2022年调查中为2164年）才达50%。多数受访者对AI进步的长期价值表现出显著不确定性：尽管68.3%的人认为超人类AI带来的好结果比坏结果更可能发生，但在这些乐观派中，48%的人认为出现人类灭绝等极端坏结果的概率至少为5%；而悲观派中，59%的人认为出现极端好结果的概率至少为5%。38%至51%的受访者认为，高级AI导致人类灭绝等坏结果的风险至少为10%。超过半数受访者认为，对包括虚假信息、威权控制和不平等等六种不同AI相关场景，应持"重大"或"极端"担忧。关于AI发展速度加快或放缓对人类未来更有利，各方意见存在分歧。但普遍共识是，旨在降低AI系统潜在风险的研究应获得优先支持。