AI-enabled military systems are a fixture of modern military conflict. Applications vary from autonomous drones for surveillance and attack to AI-supported target selection. The importance of AI for modern conflict shows also in public disputes between governments and technology companies over the conditions for military access to frontier AI. Both military uses and government attempts at enabling and steering them happen before a backdrop of public opinion, yet we still know little about how people think about military AI. Drawing on a preregistered survey of 9,000 respondents in nine countries, including China, Germany, and the United States, we examine whether support for military AI is shaped primarily by general attitudes toward AI, principled opposition to lethal autonomy, or foreign-policy and geopolitical orientations. Across six military AI scenarios that vary in lethality and human control, respondents who view AI as beneficial are substantially more supportive of military AI. Hawkish respondents are also more supportive. By contrast, principled opposition to lethal autonomy is not broadly associated with the full index but is related to the application of fully autonomous lethal force. Contrary to our expectation, perceived AI risks are positively associated with support. Cross-national differences are moderate and broadly consistent with geopolitical context. Overall, public opinion toward military AI appears conditionally permissive. Publics are not categorically opposed to various military uses of AI. Instead, unease is concentrated around fully autonomous lethal force.

翻译：人工智能赋能的军事系统已成为现代军事冲突的常态。其应用范围涵盖用于侦察与攻击的自主无人机，以及由AI辅助的目标选择。人工智能对现代冲突的重要性，还体现在政府与科技公司就尖端军事AI接入条件所引发的公开争议中。军事用途及政府引导、管控此类用途的努力，均发生在公众舆论的背景下，然而我们对于民众如何看待军用AI仍知之甚少。本研究基于在中国、德国和美国等九个国家开展的预登记调查（样本量9000人），考察了对军用AI的支持是否主要受制于对AI的总体态度、对致命自主武器的原则性反对，或是外交政策与地缘政治取向。在涵盖不同致伤力及人类控制程度的六种军用AI场景中，认为AI有益处的受访者对军用AI的支持度显著更高。持鹰派立场的受访者也表现出更强的支持。相比之下，对致命自主武器的原则性反对虽然与完全自主致命武力的应用相关，却与总体指标关联不广。与预期相反，感知到的AI风险与支持度呈正相关。国家间差异较为温和，且与地缘政治背景大体一致。总体而言，公众对军用AI的态度呈现有条件许可的态势：民众并非一概反对AI的各种军事用途，不安情绪主要集中于完全自主的致命武力。