AI sovereignty is the extent to which a nation independently controls its artificial intelligence (AI) technologies. The race toward ever-more-sophisticated frontier AI models is of increasing strategic importance, with nations considering how AI might improve their economic situations, competitive advantage, and overall national power. However, the costs of AI sovereignty are enormous, and we lack definitions and conceptual models to navigate evolving AI sovereignty dynamics. We address this gap with definitions relevant to AI sovereignty, along with a first-of-its-kind qualitative model that incorporates micro, meso, and macro contributors. Model-based qualitative forecasts highlight competitive dynamics and evolving potential for AI-driven national power. The model identifies key leverage points that nations can use to enhance their own growth or degrade an adversary's, including consideration of accelerators, electricity, water, data sets and skilled workforce. These leverage points can be activated at strategic and operational levels through both direct kinetic actions, such as Iran's targeting of data centers with drones, and indirect non-kinetic effects including cyber, space, information, economic coercion and diplomacy. If our assumptions and hypotheses are valid, this strategic competition may come to define how nations improve their economic situations, competitive advantage, and overall national power in the 21st Century.

翻译：AI主权衡量的是一个国家对其人工智能技术的独立掌控程度。随着前沿AI模型日趋复杂，围绕更先进模型的竞赛日益具有战略重要性，各国正考量AI如何改善其经济状况、竞争优势及整体国家实力。然而，AI主权的代价极其高昂，并且我们缺乏定义和概念模型来应对不断演变的AI主权动态。为此，我们提出了与AI主权相关的定义，以及首个涵盖微观、中观和宏观贡献因素的定性模型。基于模型的定性预测揭示了竞争动态以及AI驱动国家实力的演变潜力。该模型识别出各国可用于增强自身增长或削弱对手的关键杠杆点，包括对加速器、电力、水资源、数据集及熟练劳动力的考量。这些杠杆点可通过直接动能行动（如伊朗使用无人机攻击数据中心）和间接非动能效应（包括网络、太空、信息、经济胁迫及外交）在战略和战术层面被激活。如果我们的假设与推测成立，那么这一战略竞争或将定义21世纪各国如何改善其经济状况、竞争优势及整体国家实力。