In the field of human intelligence, officers use an alphanumeric scale, known as the Admiralty System, to rate the credibility of messages and the reliability of their sources (NATO AJP-2.1, 2016). During this evaluation, they are expected to estimate the credibility and reliability dimensions independently of each other (NATO STANAG, 2003). However, empirical results show that officers perceive these dimensions as strongly correlated (Baker et al., 1968). More precisely, they consider credibility as playing the leading role over reliability, the importance of which is only secondary (Samet, 1975). In this paper, we present a formal evaluative procedure, called L(intel), in line with these findings. We adapt dynamic belief revision to make credibility the main dimension of evaluation and introduce dynamic operators to update credibility ratings with the source's reliability. In addition to being empirically sound, we show that L(intel) provides an effective procedure to classify intelligence messages along the descriptive taxonomy presented in Icard (2023).

翻译：在人类情报领域，情报人员使用一种字母数字量表（称为海军部系统）来评估消息的可信度及其来源的可靠性（NATO AJP-2.1, 2016）。在此评估过程中，他们被要求独立估计可信度与可靠性这两个维度（NATO STANAG, 2003）。然而，实证研究结果表明，情报人员认为这两个维度存在强相关性（Baker et al., 1968）。更准确地说，他们认为可信度在评估中起主导作用，而可靠性的重要性仅为次要（Samet, 1975）。本文提出了一种符合这些发现的形式化评估程序，称为L(intel)。我们通过调整动态信念修正理论，使可信度成为评估的主要维度，并引入动态算子以结合来源可靠性来更新可信度评级。除了具备实证合理性外，我们证明L(intel)提供了一种有效程序，可按照Icard（2023）提出的描述性分类法对情报消息进行分类。