We propose a simple statistical approach for fixed-target forecasting of Arctic sea ice extent, and we provide a case study of its real-time performance for target date September 2020. The real-time forecasting begins in early June and proceeds through late September. We visually detail the evolution of the statistically-optimal point, interval, and density forecasts as time passes, new information arrives, and the end of September approaches. Among other things, our visualizations may provide useful windows for assessing the agreement between dynamical climate models and observational data.

翻译：我们建议对北极海冰范围的固定目标预测采用简单的统计方法,我们提供2020年9月目标日期实时业绩的案例研究。实时预测始于6月初,持续到9月底。我们从视觉上详细介绍了随着时间流逝、新信息到来和9月底的接近,统计最佳点、间隔和密度预测的演变情况。除其他外,我们的可视化为评估动态气候模型和观测数据之间协议的有用窗口。