The August 2022 special election for U.S. House Representative in Alaska featured three main candidates and was conducted by by single-winner ranked choice voting method known as ``instant runoff voting." The results of this election displayed a well-known but relatively rare phenomenon known as the ``center squeeze:" The most centrist candidate, Mark Begich, was eliminated in the first round despite winning an overwhelming majority of second-place votes. In fact, Begich was the {\em Condorcet winner} of this election: Based on the cast vote record, he would have defeated both of the other two candidates in head-to-head contests, but he was eliminated in the first round of ballot counting due to receiving the fewest first-place votes. The purpose of this paper is to use the data in the cast vote record to explore the range of likely outcomes if this election had been conducted under two alternative voting methods: Approval Voting and STAR (``Score Then Automatic Runoff") Voting. We find that under the best assumptions available about voter behavior, the most likely outcomes are that Peltola would still have won the election under Approval Voting, while Begich would have won under STAR Voting.

翻译：2022年8月美国阿拉斯加州众议员特别选举中，三位主要候选人参与角逐，采用名为"即时 runoff 投票"的单一获胜者排序投票法。此次选举结果呈现出一个广为人知但相对罕见的"中心挤压"现象：最温和派候选人马克·贝吉奇虽赢得压倒性多数第二选择票，却在首轮即遭淘汰。事实上，贝吉奇是本次选举的{\em 孔多塞胜者}：根据已投选票记录，他在一对一对决中将击败其他两位候选人，却因首轮得票最少而被淘汰。本文旨在利用已投选票记录数据，探究若采用两种替代投票方法——同意投票法与STAR（"打分后自动 runoff"）投票法——可能产生的选举结果范围。研究发现，在对选民行为的最佳假设下，最可能的结果是：采用同意投票法时，佩尔托拉仍将胜选；而若采用STAR投票法，贝吉奇将会获胜。