This paper examines whether artificial intelligence (AI) acts as a substitute or complement to human labour, drawing on 12 million online job vacancies from the United States spanning 2018-2023. We adopt a two-pronged approach: first, analysing "internal effects" within roles explicitly requiring AI, and second, investigating "external effects" that arise when industries, occupations, and regions experience increases in AI demand. Our focus centres on whether complementary skills-such as digital literacy, teamwork, resilience, agility, or analytical thinking-become more prevalent and valuable as AI adoption grows. Results show that AI-focused roles are nearly twice as likely to require skills like resilience, agility, or analytical thinking compared to non-AI roles. Furthermore, these skills command a significant wage premium; data scientists, for instance, are offered 5-10% higher salaries if they also possess resilience or ethics capabilities. We observe positive spillover effects: a doubling of AI-specific demand across industries correlates with a 5% increase in demand for complementary skills, even outside AI-related roles. Conversely, tasks vulnerable to AI substitution, such as basic data skills or translation, exhibit modest declines in demand. However, the external effect is clearly net positive: Complementary effects are up to 1.7x larger than substitution effects. These results are consistent across economies, including the United Kingdom and Australia. Our findings highlight the necessity of reskilling workers in areas where human expertise remains increasingly valuable and ensuring workers can effectively complement and leverage emerging AI technologies.

翻译：本文基于2018-2023年美国1200万条在线职位空缺数据，研究人工智能（AI）对人类劳动力究竟是替代还是补充作用。我们采用双重视角进行分析：首先考察明确要求AI技能的岗位内部效应，其次探究行业、职业和地区AI需求增长所产生的外部效应。研究聚焦于随着AI应用普及，数字素养、团队协作、抗压韧性、敏捷应变或分析思维等互补性技能是否变得更为普遍且更具价值。结果显示：相较于非AI岗位，AI相关职位要求抗压韧性、敏捷应变或分析思维等技能的概率高出近一倍。这些技能还能带来显著的薪资溢价：例如，具备抗压韧性或伦理能力的数据科学家薪资水平会高出5-10%。我们观察到积极的外溢效应：当行业特定AI需求翻倍时，即使是非AI相关岗位对互补性技能的需求也会增长5%。相反，易受AI替代的基础数据技能或翻译等任务需求呈现小幅下降。但外部效应总体呈现净正值：互补效应可达替代效应的1.7倍。这一结论在美国、英国和澳大利亚等经济体中均保持一致性。我们的研究结果强调，在人类专长持续增值的领域开展劳动力技能重塑至关重要，同时应确保劳动者能有效补充并利用新兴AI技术。