Autoregressive language models (LMs) map token sequences to probabilities. The usual practice for computing the probability of any character string (e.g. English sentences) is to first transform it into a sequence of tokens that is scored by the model. However, there are exponentially many token sequences that represent any given string. To truly compute the probability of a string one should marginalize over all tokenizations, which is typically intractable. Here, we analyze whether the practice of ignoring the marginalization is justified. To this end, we devise an importance-sampling-based algorithm that allows us to compute estimates of the marginal probabilities and compare them to the default procedure in a range of state-of-the-art models and datasets. Our results show that the gap in log-likelihood is no larger than 0.5% in most cases, but that it becomes more pronounced for data with long complex words.

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