Governments with limited fiscal and administrative capacity need to know which Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) propagate progress through the goal system and how quickly. We map the directed interdependence structure of all seventeen goals using a balanced panel of 114 countries observed annually from 2000 to 2024. The goal series are persistent, trending, and cross-sectionally dependent, so we apply two estimators matched to this regime: a Dumitrescu-Hurlin panel Granger non-causality test, run on first-differenced series, to recover the directed interaction network, and panel local projections with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors to measure the dynamic magnitude of 31 theory-derived indicator linkages. Of 272 directed goal pairs, 84 linkages survive false-discovery control (40 synergies, 44 trade-offs; network density 0.31). Synergies and trade-offs occur at comparable strength, so no single goal behaves as a universal accelerator, and the goal-level hierarchy itself is fragile. Driver-receiver rankings correlate weakly across lag orders and centrality metrics, and under a country bootstrap only two roles are distinguishable from zero: peace and strong institutions as the clearest net receiver, and poverty reduction as the most probable effect-size-weighted driver. The supported linkages are dynamic, accruing over four to five years: sanitation and poverty improvements are the strongest predictors of lower child mortality, and the education-child-health association is corroborated in independent World Development Indicators data across 183 countries. These results caution against rankings-based accelerator policy and support adaptive portfolios built on supported, time-lagged linkages monitored through constituent indicators.

翻译：财政与行政能力有限的政府需要了解哪些可持续发展目标能够通过目标体系促进进展，以及其作用速度。我们利用2000年至2024年间114个国家的年度平衡面板数据，绘制了全部17个目标的相互依赖有向结构。这些目标序列具有持久性、趋势性和截面依赖性，因此我们采用两种与这一特征相匹配的估计方法：对一阶差分序列实施Dumitrescu-Hurlin面板Granger非因果检验，以恢复有向交互网络；结合Driscoll-Kraay标准误的面板局部投影法，测度31个理论推导指标关联的动态强度。在272对有向目标组合中，经假发现率控制后保留84条关联（40条协同效应、44条权衡效应；网络密度0.31）。协同效应与权衡效应的强度相当，因而没有任何单一目标能够充当通用加速器，目标层级结构本身亦不稳定。推动者-接收者排名在不同滞后阶数和中心性指标间相关性较弱，经国家自助法检验，仅有两个角色显著区别于零：和平与强大制度作为最明确的净接收者，以及减贫作为最可能的效果量加权推动者。所支持的关联具有动态性，需经四至五年累积显现：卫生改善与减贫是儿童死亡率下降的最强预测因子，而教育与儿童健康之间的关联在覆盖183个国家的独立世界发展指标数据中得到验证。这些结果警示基于排名的加速器策略，并支持通过组成指标监测的、经实证验证的时滞关联来构建适应性政策组合。