Electric generation and consumption are an essential component of contemporary living, influencing diverse facets of our daily routines, convenience, and economic progress. There is a high demand for characterizing the periodic pattern of electricity consumption. VBPBB employs a bandpass filter aligned to retain the frequency of a PC component and eliminating interference from other components. This leads to a significant reduction in the size of bootstrapped confidence intervals. Furthermore, other PC bootstrap methods preserve one but not multiple periodically correlated components, resulting in superior performance compared to other methods by providing a more precise estimation of the sampling distribution for the desired characteristics. The study of the periodic means of Turkey electricity consumption using VBPBB is presented and compared with outcomes from alternative bootstrapping approaches. These findings offer significant evidence supporting the existence of daily, weekly, and annual PC patterns, along with information on their timing and confidence intervals for their effects. This information is valuable for enhancing predictions and preparations for future responses to electricity consumption.
翻译:发电和消费是现代生活的重要组成部分,影响着我们日常生活的方方面面、便利性和经济进步。对电力消耗周期性模式进行表征的需求很高。VBPBB采用一种带通滤波器,旨在保留周期成分的频率,同时消除其他成分的干扰。这导致自举置信区间的大小显著减小。此外,其他周期成分自举方法仅保留一个而非多个周期性相关成分,从而通过提供更精确的目标特征抽样分布估计,展现出相比其他方法的优越性能。本文介绍了使用VBPBB对土耳其电力消耗周期性均值的研究,并将其与替代自举方法的结果进行了比较。这些发现提供了有力证据,支持日常、每周和年度周期性模式的存在,同时提供了其发生时间和效应置信区间的相关信息。这些信息对于改进电力消耗预测和制定未来应对措施具有重要价值。