The European Green Deal aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, requiring the transportation industry to improve emission efficiency as it accounts for 20% of global CO2 emissions. This study uses an agent-based simulation to analyze the sustainability impacts of shared autonomous shuttles. We forecast travel demands for 2050 and simulate regulatory interventions in the form of replacing private cars with a fleet of shared autonomous shuttles in specific areas. We derive driving-related emissions, energy consumption, and non-driving-related emissions to calculate life-cycle emissions. We observe reduced life-cycle emissions from 0.4% to 9.6% and reduced energy consumption from 1.5% to 12.2%.

翻译：《欧洲绿色协议》旨在2050年前实现气候中和，这要求交通运输行业提高排放效率，因为该行业占全球二氧化碳排放量的20%。本研究采用基于智能体的仿真方法，分析共享自动驾驶穿梭巴士的可持续性影响。我们预测了2050年的出行需求，并模拟了以特定区域用共享自动驾驶穿梭巴士车队替代私家车形式的监管干预措施。通过计算与驾驶相关的排放、能源消耗以及非驾驶相关排放，我们评估了全生命周期排放。结果显示，全生命周期排放降低了0.4%至9.6%，能源消耗降低了1.5%至12.2%。