Open-source software (OSS) community managers face significant challenges in retaining contributors, as they must monitor activity and engagement while navigating complex dynamics of collaboration. Current tools designed for managing contributor retention (e.g., dashboards) fall short by providing retrospective rather than predictive insights to identify potential disengagement early. Without understanding how to anticipate and prevent disengagement, new solutions risk burdening community managers rather than supporting retention management. Following the Design Science Research paradigm, we employed a mixed-methods approach for problem identification and solution design to address contributor retention. To identify the challenges hindering retention management in OSS, we conducted semi-structured interviews, a multi-vocal literature review, and community surveys. Then through an iterative build-evaluate cycle, we developed and refined strategies for diagnosing retention risks and informing engagement efforts. We operationalized these strategies into a web-based prototype, incorporating feedback from 100+ OSS practitioners, and conducted an in situ evaluation across two OSS communities. Our study offers (1) empirical insights into the challenges of contributor retention management in OSS, (2) actionable strategies that support OSS community managers' retention efforts, and (3) a practical framework for future research in developing or validating theories about OSS sustainability.

翻译：开源软件（OSS）社区管理者在留存贡献者方面面临重大挑战，他们需要监控活动与参与度，同时应对复杂的协作动态。当前用于管理贡献者留存的工具（例如仪表板）存在不足，仅能提供回顾性而非预测性见解，无法及早识别潜在的参与度下降。若不了解如何预测和防止参与度下降，新的解决方案可能会加重社区管理者的负担，而非支持留存管理。遵循设计科学研究范式，我们采用混合方法进行问题识别与解决方案设计，以应对贡献者留存问题。为识别阻碍开源软件留存管理的挑战，我们进行了半结构化访谈、多声部文献综述和社区调查。随后通过迭代的构建-评估循环，我们开发并完善了用于诊断留存风险及指导参与度提升工作的策略。我们将这些策略实施为一个基于网络的原型系统，整合了100多位开源软件从业者的反馈，并在两个开源软件社区中进行了实地评估。本研究提供了：（1）对开源软件贡献者留存管理挑战的实证见解；（2）支持开源软件社区管理者留存工作的可操作策略；（3）一个实用的框架，用于未来开发或验证开源软件可持续性理论的研究。