We analyse the temporal and regional structure in mortality rates related to COVID-19 infections. We relate the fatality date of each deceased patient to the corresponding day of registration of the infection, leading to a nowcasting model which allows us to estimate the number of present-day infections that will, at a later date, prove to be fatal. The numbers are broken down to the district level in Germany. Given that death counts generally provide more reliable information on the spread of the disease compared to infection counts, which inevitably depend on testing strategy and capacity, the proposed model and the presented results allow to obtain reliable insight into the current state of the pandemic in Germany.

翻译：我们分析与COVID-19感染有关的死亡率的时间和区域结构,我们将每个死亡病人的死亡日期与相应的感染登记日联系起来,从而形成一个即时预测模式,使我们能够估计在以后某个日期将证明致命的当前感染人数,数字细分为德国地区一级,鉴于死亡统计通常提供与感染计数相比有关疾病传播的更可靠信息,而感染计数不可避免地取决于检测战略和能力,拟议模式和提出的结果使我们能够可靠地了解德国的流行病现状。