Maximal Extractable Value (MEV) represents billions of dollars in extracted value that fundamentally shapes blockchain network dynamics and participant incentives. While research has focused on MEV extraction and mitigation, we lack systematic methods to attribute MEV opportunities to their on-chain origins. This paper formalizes the MEV opportunity attribution problem and introduces a systems framework for identifying which transactions create arbitrage opportunities and quantifying their contributions. We design and evaluate four attribution methods for atomic arbitrage on EVM-compatible networks: bot-data-driven, simulation-based, coefficient-based, and Shapley-based approaches. Through large-scale retrospective analysis spanning over one million blocks on Polygon, we demonstrate that the majority of atomic arbitrage opportunities can be traced to single source transactions, validating our central hypothesis about competitive MEV markets. We quantify a highly concentrated distribution of MEV creation, where a small subset of protocols generates most opportunities, and provide comparative analysis of method trade-offs in accuracy, cost, and scalability. Our findings offer insights for protocol designers reducing MEV leakage, validators optimizing transaction ordering, and analysts measuring ecosystem health through opportunity creation.

翻译：最大可提取价值 (MEV) 代表了数十亿美元的提取价值，从根本上塑造了区块链网络动态和参与者激励。尽管研究已聚焦于 MEV 的提取与缓解，但我们仍缺乏将 MEV 机会归因至其链上起源的系统性方法。本文形式化了 MEV 机会归因问题，并引入一个系统框架，用于识别哪些交易创造了套利机会，并量化其贡献。我们针对 EVM 兼容网络上的原子套利，设计并评估了四种归因方法：基于机器人数据的方法、基于模拟的方法、基于系数的方法和基于 Shapley 值的方法。通过在 Polygon 网络上覆盖超过一百万个区块的大规模回顾性分析，我们证明了大多数原子套利机会可追溯至单一源交易，验证了我们关于竞争性 MEV 市场的核心假设。我们量化了高度集中的 MEV 创造分布，其中一小部分协议产生了大部分机会，并提供了关于方法在准确性、成本和可扩展性方面权衡的比较分析。我们的研究发现为协议设计者减少 MEV 泄漏、验证者优化交易排序以及分析师通过机会创造衡量生态系统健康度提供了洞见。