Background: This invited paper is the result of an invitation to write a retrospective article on a "TSE most influential paper" as part of the journal's 50th anniversary. Objective: To reflect on the progress of software engineering prediction research using the lens of a selected, highly cited research paper and 28 years of hindsight. Methods: The paper examines (i) what was achieved, (ii) what has endured and (iii) what could have been done differently with the benefit of retrospection. Conclusions: While many specifics of software project effort prediction have evolved, key methodological issues remain relevant. The original study emphasised empirical validation with benchmarks, out-of-sample testing and data/tool sharing. Four areas for improvement are identified: (i) stronger commitment to Open Science principles, (ii) focus on effect sizes and confidence intervals, (iii) reporting variability alongside typical results and (iv) more rigorous examination of threats to validity.

翻译：背景：本文为受邀撰写，源于期刊创刊50周年之际对一篇"TSE最具影响力论文"进行回顾性评述的邀约。目的：通过选取一篇高被引研究论文，结合28年后的视角，反思软件工程预测研究的进展。方法：本文从三个方面展开分析：（i）原研究的成果贡献，（ii）经久不衰的研究价值，以及（iii）基于回溯视角可改进之处。结论：尽管软件项目工作量预测的具体方法已历经演变，但关键的方法学问题仍具现实意义。原研究强调通过基准测试进行实证验证、样本外测试以及数据/工具共享。本文提出四个改进方向：（i）强化对开放科学原则的践行，（ii）聚焦效应量与置信区间分析，（iii）在报告典型结果时同步呈现变异特征，以及（iv）对效度威胁进行更严格的检验。