The question of whether AI substitutes or complements human work is central to debates on the future of work. This paper examines the impact of AI on skill demand and compensation in the U.S. economy, analysing 12 million online job vacancies from 2018 to 2023. It investigates internal effects (within-job substitution and complementation) and external effects (across occupations, industries, and regions). Our findings reveal a significant increase in demand for AI-complementary skills, such as digital literacy, teamwork, and resilience, alongside rising wage premiums for these skills in AI roles like Data Scientist. Conversely, substitute skills, including customer service and text review, have declined in both demand and value within AI-related positions. Examining external effects, we find a notable rise in demand for complementary skills in non-AI roles linked to the growth of AI-related jobs in specific industries or regions. At the same time, there is a moderate decline in non-AI roles requiring substitute skills. Overall, AI's complementary effect is up to 50% larger than its substitution effect, resulting in net positive demand for skills. These results, replicated for the UK and Australia, highlight AI's transformative impact on workforce skill requirements. They suggest reskilling efforts should prioritise not only technical AI skills but also complementary skills like ethics and digital literacy.

翻译：人工智能究竟是替代还是补充人类工作，是未来工作辩论的核心。本文通过分析2018年至2023年间1200万份美国在线职位空缺，考察了人工智能对美国经济中技能需求与薪酬的影响。研究探讨了内部效应（岗位内的替代与互补）和外部效应（跨职业、跨行业、跨区域）。我们的研究结果显示，对人工智能互补技能（如数字素养、团队协作和应变能力）的需求显著增加，同时在数据科学家等人工智能相关职位中，这些技能的薪酬溢价也在上升。相反，替代性技能（包括客户服务和文本审核）在人工智能相关岗位中的需求和价值均有所下降。在外部效应方面，我们发现，在特定行业或地区，随着人工智能相关职位的增长，与非人工智能职位相关的互补技能需求显著上升。与此同时，对需要替代性技能的非人工智能职位的需求则出现适度下降。总体而言，人工智能的互补效应比替代效应高出约50%，从而带来了技能需求的净增长。这些在英国和澳大利亚的复现结果一致，突显了人工智能对劳动力技能要求的变革性影响。研究表明，技能再培训不仅应优先关注人工智能技术技能，还应重视伦理、数字素养等互补性技能。