Video emotion understanding is commonly studied as an offline classification problem, where the complete video segment is available before prediction. Real-time interaction, however, requires emotion decisions from incomplete and evolving evidence. This paper studies streaming video emotion understanding as a reliability-aware decision process over evolving emotion beliefs. In this setting, a single confident prefix prediction can still be unreliable when the underlying belief trajectory is unstable or repeatedly switches across emotion classes. We propose TRACE, a trajectory-aware reliability framework that forms low-latency emotion beliefs from streaming audio prefixes, estimates reliability from confidence, entropy, stability, and class-switching patterns, and selectively invokes contextual belief reinterpretation with visual, textual, and neighboring-utterance evidence. TRACE keeps stable cases in the low-latency online pathway while allocating stronger multimodal reasoning to uncertain cases that remain ambiguous. Experiments on StreamMER, MELD, and MER2024 show that TRACE improves the accuracy-cost trade-off, retaining most full-context gains while reducing unnecessary contextual reasoning.

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