As the impending consequences of climate change loom over the Earth, it has become vital for researchers to understand the role microorganisms play in this process. In this paper, we examine how environmental factors, including moisture levels and temperature, affect the expression of certain fungal characteristics on a microscale, and how these in turn affect fungal biodiversity and ecosystem decomposition rates over time. We first present a differential equation model to understand how the distribution of different fungal isolates depends on regional moisture levels. We introduce both slow and sudden variations into the environment in order to represent the various ways climate change will impact fungal ecosystems. This model demonstrates that increased variability in moisture (both short-term and long-term) increases biodiversity and that fungal populations will shift towards more stress-tolerant fungi as aridity increases. The model further suggests the lack of any direct link between biodiversity and decomposition rates. To better describe fungal competition with respect to space, we develop a local agent-based model (ABM). Unlike the previous model, our ABM focuses on individuals, tracking each fungus and the result of its interactions. Our ABM also features a more accurate spatial combat system, allowing us to precisely discern the influence of fungal interactions on the environment. This model corroborates the results of the differential equation model and further suggests that moisture, through its link with temperature and effects on fungal population, also plays a strong role in determining fungal decomposition rates. Together, these models suggest that climate change, which portends increasing variability in regional conditions and higher average temperatures worldwide, will lead to an increase in both wood decomposition rates and, independently, fungal biodiversity.

翻译：随着气候变化带来的灾难性后果日益逼近地球，研究人员必须理解微生物在此过程中扮演的角色。本文探究了包括水分含量和温度在内的环境因素如何在微观尺度上影响特定真菌特性的表达，以及这些特性如何随时间推移反过来影响真菌生物多样性和生态系统分解速率。我们首先提出一个微分方程模型，以理解不同真菌分离株的分布如何依赖于区域水分含量。我们在环境中引入了缓慢和突发两种变化，以代表气候变化影响真菌生态系统的多种方式。该模型表明，水分变异性的增加（无论是短期还是长期）会提升生物多样性，并且随着干旱加剧，真菌种群将向更具胁迫耐受性的真菌转变。模型进一步指出，生物多样性与分解速率之间缺乏直接关联。为了更好地描述真菌在空间上的竞争关系，我们开发了一个基于个体模型（ABM）。与之前的模型不同，我们的ABM聚焦于个体，追踪每个真菌及其相互作用的结果。该ABM还配备了一个更精确的空间对抗系统，使我们能够准确辨别真菌相互作用对环境的影响。这一模型验证了微分方程模型的结果，并进一步表明，水分通过其与温度的关联及对真菌种群的影响，在决定真菌分解速率方面也起着重要作用。综合来看，这些模型表明，气候变化——预示着区域条件变异性的增加和全球平均温度的升高——将同时导致木材分解速率的提升和真菌生物多样性的独立增长。