The Family Planning Estimation Tool (FPET) is used in low- and middle-income countries to produce estimates and short-term forecasts of family planning indicators, such as modern contraceptive use and unmet need for contraceptives. Estimates are obtained via a Bayesian statistical model that is fitted to country-specific data from surveys and service statistics data. The model has evolved over the last decade based on user inputs. In this paper we summarize the main features of the statistical model used in FPET and introduce recent updates related to capturing contraceptive transitions, fitting to survey data that may be error prone, and the use of service statistics data. We assess model performance through a validation exercise and find that FPET is reasonably well calibrated. We use our experience with FPET to briefly discuss lessons learned and open challenges related to the broader field of statistical modeling for monitoring of demographic and global health indicators.

翻译：计划生育评估工具（FPET）被用于低收入和中等收入国家，以生成计划生育指标的估计值和短期预测，例如现代避孕方法使用率及未满足的避孕需求。估计值通过贝叶斯统计模型获得，该模型基于各国特定的调查数据和服务统计数据拟合而成。过去十年中，该模型根据用户反馈不断演进。本文总结了FPET所用统计模型的主要特点，并介绍了近期更新内容，包括捕捉避孕方式转变、适配可能存在误差的调查数据以及服务统计数据的运用。通过验证实验评估模型性能，我们发现FPET具有较好的校准度。结合FPET的应用经验，我们简要探讨了在更广泛的统计建模领域中，用于监测人口与全球健康指标的经验教训及面临的开放挑战。