In this paper we propose a novel method to forecast the result of elections using only official results of previous ones. It is based on the voter model with stubborn nodes and uses theoretical results developed in a previous work of ours. We look at popular vote shares for the Conservative and Labour parties in the UK and the Republican and Democrat parties in the US. We are able to perform time-evolving estimates of the model parameters and use these to forecast the vote shares for each party in any election. We obtain a mean absolute error of 4.74\%. As a side product, our parameters estimates provide meaningful insight on the political landscape, informing us on the proportion of voters that are strong supporters of each of the considered parties.

翻译：在本文中,我们建议一种新颖的方法,仅使用前几次选举的正式结果来预测选举结果;它基于选民模式,具有顽固的节点,并使用我们以往工作中形成的理论结果;我们审视联合王国保守党和工党以及美国共和党和民主党的选票份额;我们能够对模型参数进行时间变化的估算,并利用这些估算来预测每个政党在任何选举中的选票份额;我们获得了4.74 ⁇ 的绝对平均误差;作为副产品,我们的参数估算提供了对政治格局的有意义的洞察力,告诉我们每个被考虑的政党的有力支持者的选民比例。