Recent results [arXiv:2602.04378, arXiv:2602.22608] have established worst-case objective-error lower bounds of order $1/T^2$ after $T$ linear minimization oracle (LMO) calls, matching the upper bound [arXiv:1406.1305] in its dependence on $T$ and thereby resolving a long-standing open question. Upon close inspection, however, both lower bounds are somewhat brittle. The first [arXiv:2602.04378] applies only to the standard Frank--Wolfe algorithm, and, as we show, its prescribed slow exact-line-search trajectories can amplify sufficiently small initialization errors exponentially, corresponding to roughly one additional bit of initialization accuracy per iteration. The second [arXiv:2602.22608] obtains lower bounds for any deterministic LMO-based first-order method via a resisting oracle that adversarially adapts to the queries of the algorithm. In both cases it is conceivable that randomization may circumvent these lower bounds; in particular, neither establishes a lower bound for unrestricted randomized first-order LMO methods. We close this gap by proving an $Ω(L\operatorname{diam}(S)^2/T^2)$ distributional lower bound for randomized first-order linear minimization oracle methods over strongly convex sets. While our construction reuses the family of [arXiv:2602.22608], our proof characterizes the conditional distribution of the hidden permutation after adaptive queries and bounds the expected decrease of a combinatorial statistic controlling optimizer variance. We further show that the same error threshold holds with probability at least $3/4$ and yields a stopping-time tail bound.

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