Artificial intelligence poses many risks, ranging from familiar present-day harms to unprecedented and potentially catastrophic ones. Effective risk management requires prioritization: we must understand which risks are most severe, who is most vulnerable, and who is most responsible for addressing them. We report results from a three-round Delphi study conducted late 2025 with 272 international AI experts. Experts rated 24 AI risks on harm probability and severity, sector and actor vulnerability, actor responsibility, and overall concern. Experts estimated the five most severe harms in the next 5 years were likely to come from dangerous capabilities, competitive dynamics, weapons & cyberattacks (including CBRNE), power centralization, and false information. In a business-as-usual scenario, experts judged 18 of 24 risks as having a more than 10% probability of catastrophic outcomes (e.g., more than 1 million deaths or more than USD 100B in financial loss) in the next 5 years (2025-2030). In a scenario where pragmatic mitigations are implemented, experts still judged five risks as having a more than 10% probability of catastrophic outcomes: dangerous capabilities, weapons & cyberattacks, environmental harm, inequality & unemployment, and power centralization. All 24 risks were judged as being more than 5% likely to cause catastrophic outcomes. AI users and the general public were judged the most vulnerable to these risks, but experts assigned the highest responsibility for addressing them to general-purpose AI developers and governance actors (including governments, regulators, and standards bodies). Across most risks, experts identified information, finance, and national security as the most vulnerable sectors. These findings can guide AI risk prioritization and clarify expert expectations about who should bear responsibility for mitigation.

翻译：摘要：人工智能带来诸多风险，从当前常见的危害到前所未有且可能具有灾难性的后果。有效的风险管理需要优先级排序：我们必须了解哪些风险最为严重，哪些群体最为脆弱，以及哪些主体应承担主要应对责任。本文报告了一项于2025年底开展的三轮德尔菲研究结果，共有272位国际人工智能专家参与。专家们对24项人工智能风险进行了评估，涵盖危害概率与严重性、行业与主体脆弱性、主体责任及整体关注度。专家预测，未来五年最严重的五大危害可能来自：危险能力、竞争动态、武器与网络攻击（包括化生放核爆）、权力集中以及虚假信息。在一切照旧情景下，专家认为24项风险中有18项在未来五年（2025-2030年）内造成灾难性后果（如超过100万人死亡或超过1000亿美元经济损失）的概率超过10%。在实施务实缓解措施的情景下，专家仍判定五项风险有超过10%的灾难性概率：危险能力、武器与网络攻击、环境危害、不平等与失业以及权力集中。全部24项风险被认为有超过5%的概率导致灾难性后果。人工智能用户和公众被视为最脆弱的群体，但专家将最高应对责任赋予通用人工智能开发者与治理主体（包括政府、监管机构及标准制定组织）。在大多数风险中，专家认定信息、金融和国家安全为最脆弱的行业。这些发现可用于指导人工智能风险优先级排序，并阐明专家对各方应承担缓解责任的预期。