Without the ability to estimate and benchmark AI capability advancements, organizations are left to respond to each change reactively, impeding their ability to build viable mid and long-term strategies. This paper explores the recent growth of forecasting, a political science tool that uses explicit assumptions and quantitative estimation that leads to improved prediction accuracy. Done at the collective level, forecasting can identify and verify talent, enable leaders to build better models of AI advancements and improve inputs into design policy. Successful approaches to forecasting and case studies are examined, revealing a subclass of "superforecasters" who outperform 98% of the population and whose insights will be most reliable. Finally, techniques behind successful forecasting are outlined, including Phillip Tetlock's "Ten Commandments." To adapt to a quickly changing technology landscape, designers and policymakers should consider forecasting as a first line of defense.

翻译：若无法评估和对标人工智能能力的进步，组织将只能被动应对每一次变化，从而阻碍其制定可行的中长期战略。本文探讨了预测这一政治学工具的近期发展，它通过明确假设与量化估计来提高预测准确性。在集体层面实施时，预测能够发现并验证人才，帮助领导者构建更完善的人工智能发展模型，并改进设计政策的输入依据。研究考察了成功的预测方法及案例，揭示了在预测准确率上超越98%人群的"超级预测者"子群体，其洞察最具可靠性。最后，本文概述了成功预测背后的技术，包括菲利普·泰特洛克的"十诫"。为适应快速变化的技术格局，设计师与政策制定者应将预测作为首道防线。