Advancements in Artificial Intelligence, particularly with ChatGPT, have significantly impacted software development. Utilizing novel data from GitHub Innovation Graph, we hypothesize that ChatGPT enhances software production efficiency. Utilizing natural experiments where some governments banned ChatGPT, we employ Difference-in-Differences (DID), Synthetic Control (SC), and Synthetic Difference-in-Differences (SDID) methods to estimate its effects. Our findings indicate a significant positive impact on the number of git pushes, repositories, and unique developers per 100,000 people, particularly for high-level, general purpose, and shell scripting languages. These results suggest that AI tools like ChatGPT can substantially boost developer productivity, though further analysis is needed to address potential downsides such as low quality code and privacy concerns.

翻译：人工智能的进步，特别是ChatGPT的出现，已对软件开发产生显著影响。利用来自GitHub创新图谱的新颖数据，我们提出假设：ChatGPT能够提升软件生产效率。通过以部分政府禁用ChatGPT作为自然实验场景，我们采用双重差分法、合成控制法以及合成双重差分法来估计其效应。研究结果表明，ChatGPT对每10万人中的git推送次数、代码仓库数量及独立开发者数量均产生显著正向影响，尤其对高级通用编程语言和Shell脚本语言影响更为明显。这些发现表明，以ChatGPT为代表的AI工具能够大幅提升开发者生产力，但未来仍需进一步分析其潜在负面影响，例如低质量代码与隐私问题。