In this paper, we analyze the finality of the Filecoin network, focusing on dynamic probabilistic guarantees of tipset permanence in the canonical chain. Our approach differs from static analyses that consider only the worst-case scenario; instead, we dynamically compute the error probability at each round using the live chain history, providing a more accurate and efficient assessment. We provide a practical algorithm that only requires visibility into the blocks produced by honest participants, which can be implemented by clients or off-chain applications without any change to Filecoin's consensus mechanisms.We demonstrate that, under typical operating conditions, the sought-after error probability of $2^{-30}$ is achievable in approximately 30 rounds, a 30x improvement over the 900 rounds that the network currently encodes as a fixed threshold. This finding immediately expedites transactions and enhances usability of the Filecoin network, while laying the foundation for further analysis of other DAG-structured blockchains.

翻译：本文分析了Filecoin网络的最终性，聚焦于规范链中tipset持久性的动态概率保证。我们的方法不同于仅考虑最坏情况的静态分析，而是利用实时链历史动态计算每轮的出错概率，从而提供更精准、高效的评估。我们提出了一种实用算法，该算法仅需知晓诚实参与者产生的区块信息，可由客户端或链下应用程序实现，且无需修改Filecoin的共识机制。研究表明，在典型运行条件下，每轮约30次处理即可达到$2^{-30}$的目标出错概率，相较于网络当前编码的900轮固定阈值实现了30倍提升。该发现能够立即加速交易处理并提升Filecoin网络的可用性，同时为其他有向无环图结构区块链的进一步分析奠定基础。