The challenges posed by epidemics and pandemics are immense, especially if the causes are novel. This article introduces a versatile open-source simulation framework designed to model intricate dynamics of infectious diseases across diverse population centres. Taking inspiration from historical precedents such as the Spanish flu and COVID-19, and geographical economic theories such as Central place theory, the simulation integrates agent-based modelling to depict the movement and interactions of individuals within different settlement hierarchies. Additionally, the framework provides a tool for decision-makers to assess and strategize optimal distribution plans for limited resources like vaccines or cures as well as to impose mobility restrictions.
翻译:流行病和大流行病带来的挑战是巨大的,尤其是当病原体为新型病毒时。本文介绍了一个多功能开源模拟框架,旨在模拟不同人口中心之间传染病的复杂动态。受西班牙流感和COVID-19等历史先例,以及中心地理论等地理经济学理论的启发,该模拟集成基于代理的建模,以描述个体在不同聚落层级中的移动与交互。此外,该框架为决策者提供了评估和制定有限资源(如疫苗或药物)最优分配策略以及实施流动性限制的工具。