We introduce a Process Oriented Guided Inquiry Learning (POGIL)-style activity for teaching Bayesian reasoning in introductory statistics through conditional probability, Bayes' theorem, and belief updating. The activity is self-contained, uses hand-computable probabilities organized in two-way tables, and engages students in structured team roles. We evaluated the activity in four sections of an undergraduate introductory statistics course using a quasi-experimental comparison of POGIL-style and lecture-based instruction for a Bayes' theorem unit. Outcomes included student performance on Bayes' theorem final exam questions and satisfaction with instruction. We used a Bayesian bivariate generalized linear model to compare the two approaches while accounting for major type, gender, and race. The results indicated similar exam performance and similar probabilities of high satisfaction across instructional styles and demographic groups, with considerable uncertainty and no clear evidence of meaningful differences. These findings suggest that the POGIL-style activity performed comparably to lecture-based instruction for this unit while offering an active and classroom-ready way to introduce Bayesian reasoning without requiring difficult computation or simulation. We provide adaptable instructional materials and a reproducible Bayesian analytic framework for evaluating active learning innovations in introductory statistics. Our study supports the feasible inclusion of Bayesian reasoning in introductory courses and may help instructors considering active learning.

翻译：我们提出了一种基于过程导向引导探究学习（POGIL）模式的教学活动，旨在通过条件概率、贝叶斯定理和信念更新，在初等统计学课程中教授贝叶斯推理。该活动内容完备，采用可手算且以双列联表形式组织的概率，并让学生以结构化团队角色参与其中。我们在本科生初等统计学课程的四个教学班中对这一活动进行了评估，采用准实验设计比较了贝叶斯定理单元中POGIL式教学与讲授式教学的效果。评估指标包括学生在贝叶斯定理期末考试题目上的表现以及对教学的满意度。我们采用贝叶斯二元广义线性模型进行两种教学方法的比较，同时控制了专业类型、性别和种族等变量。结果表明，在不同教学方式和人口统计分组下，学生的考试成绩相似，高满意度的概率也相近，但存在较大不确定性，且未发现具有显著意义的差异。这些发现表明，该POGIL式教学活动在该单元的教学效果与讲授式教学相当，同时提供了一种无需复杂计算或仿真即可引入贝叶斯推理的、现成可用的主动学习方案。我们提供了可适配的教学材料以及一个可复现的贝叶斯分析框架，用于评估初等统计学中的主动学习创新。本研究支持了在入门课程中切实纳入贝叶斯推理的可行性，并可为考虑采用主动学习的教师提供参考。