Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to trace changes in students' knowledge states throughout their entire learning process by analyzing their historical learning data and predicting their future learning performance. Existing forgetting curve theory based knowledge tracing models only consider the general forgetting caused by time intervals, ignoring the individualization of students and the causal relationship of the forgetting process. To address these problems, we propose a Concept-driven Personalized Forgetting knowledge tracing model (CPF) which integrates hierarchical relationships between knowledge concepts and incorporates students' personalized cognitive abilities. First, we integrate the students' personalized capabilities into both the learning and forgetting processes to explicitly distinguish students' individual learning gains and forgetting rates according to their cognitive abilities. Second, we take into account the hierarchical relationships between knowledge points and design a precursor-successor knowledge concept matrix to simulate the causal relationship in the forgetting process, while also integrating the potential impact of forgetting prior knowledge points on subsequent ones. The proposed personalized forgetting mechanism can not only be applied to the learning of specifc knowledge concepts but also the life-long learning process. Extensive experimental results on three public datasets show that our CPF outperforms current forgetting curve theory based methods in predicting student performance, demonstrating CPF can better simulate changes in students' knowledge status through the personalized forgetting mechanism.

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