This paper presents a novel compound Poisson regression model to forecast number of corner kicks taken in association football. Corner kick taken events are often decisive in the match outcome and embody serial correlation and clustered pattern. Providing parameter estimates with intuitive interpretation, a class of compound Poisson distribution including a Bayesian implementation of geometric-Poisson distribution is introduced. Apart from introducing a new statistical framework, the utilisation of cross-market data, target encoding techniques and treatment to the data-rich-data-poor problem to enhance the model predictability are also discussed.

翻译：本文介绍了一种新颖的复合Poisson回归模型,用于预测在足球赛中被踢到角落的次数; 角踢往往在匹配结果中起决定性作用,并体现了序列关联和集群模式; 提供有直觉解释的参数估计,引入了一组复合Poisson分布,包括Bayesian实施几何-Poisson分布; 除了引入新的统计框架外,还讨论了利用跨市场数据、目标编码技术和处理数据丰富、数据贫乏的问题,以提高模型的可预测性。