Aerial Object Goal Navigation (ObjectNav) requires an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) to locate a described target in an unknown outdoor environment using onboard visual observations. Vision-language models (VLMs) can interpret open-ended target descriptions and visual observations, but their frame-level outputs are often noisy, sparse, and spatially transient. We propose AeroBelief, a dual-layer semantic-spatial belief mapping framework that transforms transient VLM observations into persistent spatial guidance. It separates broad contextual plausibility from target-specific evidence: an intuition layer accumulates scene-level semantic cues for exploration, while an evidence layer preserves qualified target-specific observations for approach and confirmation. Evidence-gated fusion combines the two layers into spatial belief hotspots. We further introduce object-conditioned visual reasoning with conservative evidence qualification to improve observation reliability before spatial accumulation. In parallel, egocentric regional guidance converts quadtree coverage into UAV-centered, yaw-aligned directional proposals and stabilizes them through temporal commitment. Its regional scoring is independent of semantic belief values, maintaining exploration pressure and reducing repeated low-gain search. Experiments on the UAV-ON benchmark show that AeroBelief achieves the best reported overall SR, OSR, and SPL among the compared methods, reaching 21.61%, 35.57%, and 10.62, respectively. These results support the effectiveness of persistent semantic-spatial belief, conservative evidence qualification, and temporally stable regional guidance for aerial ObjectNav.

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