Many studies of the effect of remote work on travel demand assume that remote work takes place entirely at home. Recent evidence, however, shows that in the United States, remote workers are choosing to spend approximately one third of their remote work hours outside of the home at cafes, co-working spaces or the homes of friends and family. Commutes to these "third places" could offset much of the reduction in congestion and carbon emissions from commuting that could be expected from greater shares of remote work. To estimate the impact of third places on congestion and carbon emission from commuting, this study uses a national survey of thousands of remote workers and large-scale mobile trace data to predict current and future commuting patterns for the Chicago metropolitan area. The study reveals that ignoring third places leads to an underestimation of carbon emissions from commute-based travel demand by 470 gigatons per year, or 24% of the total true emissions. Moreover, if workers' latent desire for greater levels of remote work are realized in the future, the emissions benefits will be reduced further. The spatial analyses imply that there is a decrease in visits to the city center and outskirts, but an increase in visits to near suburban areas. Implications of these results for urban transportation and land use policy are discussed.

翻译：许多关于远程工作对出行需求影响的研究假设远程工作完全在家中进行。然而，最新证据表明，在美国，远程工作者选择将其约三分之一的远程工作时间花在家庭以外的咖啡馆、共享办公空间或亲友家中。往返这些"第三场所"的通勤可能抵消预期中远程工作比例提升所带来的大部分拥堵缓解和通勤碳排放减少。为估算第三场所对通勤拥堵和碳排放的影响，本研究利用覆盖数千名远程工作者的全国性调查与大规模移动轨迹数据，预测芝加哥都市区当前及未来的通勤模式。研究表明，忽略第三场所将导致对基于通勤的出行需求碳排放的低估——年低估量达4700亿吨，相当于真实排放总量的24%。此外，若工作者对更高程度远程工作的潜在需求在未来得以实现，减排效益将进一步削弱。空间分析显示，前往城市中心及郊区的出行减少，但近郊区域的出行增加。本文讨论了这些结果对城市交通与土地使用政策的启示。