We present a simple method for predicting the distribution of output growth and inflation in the G7 economies. The method is based on point forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as robust statistics from the empirical distribution of the IMF's past forecast errors while imposing coherence of prediction intervals across horizons. We show that the technique yields calibrated prediction intervals and performs similar to, or better than, more complex time series models in terms of statistical loss functions. We provide a simple website with graphical illustrations of our forecasts, as well as time-stamped data files that document their real-time character.

翻译：本文提出一种预测G7经济体产出增长与通胀分布的简易方法。该方法基于国际货币基金组织（IMF）发布的点预测数据，结合IMF历史预测误差经验分布的稳健统计量，同时确保跨时间维度的预测区间保持一致性。研究表明，该技术能够生成经过校准的预测区间，在统计损失函数方面表现与更复杂的时间序列模型相当或更优。我们建立了一个简易网站，以图形化方式展示预测结果，并提供时间戳数据文件以记录其实时特征。