We introduce and study a new model of decision trees that lies at the frontier of provable circuit lower bounds. We study $\ell$-local decision trees, in which each internal node queries an $\ell$-local function of the input. We show that sufficiently strong lower bounds for $\ell$-local decision trees would imply several breakthrough circuit lower bounds, including super-linear size lower bounds for log-depth circuits and improved bounds for unrestricted-depth circuits. Previously, such consequences were known to follow from strong lower bounds for depth-$3$ circuits, which has been the main prior approach in attempting to prove these results. Since local decision trees are strictly weaker than depth-$3$ circuits, this provides a formally easier route to the same circuit lower-bound consequences. We prove essentially optimal lower bounds for a weaker variant that we call oblivious $\ell$-local decision trees, where all nodes at the same depth query the same function. Our lower bounds follow from a new technique that uncovers sumset structure in local maps, and our hard functions are sumset dispersers, sumset condensers, and directional affine dispersers. Along the way, we give an explicit construction of a sumset condenser with small entropy loss. As an additional contribution, we initiate the study of degree-$2$ decision trees, in which each query is a quadratic polynomial of the input. We show that proving lower bounds in this model is a natural stepping stone toward constructing dispersers for degree-$2$ variety sources, which imply improved circuit lower bounds for unrestricted depth circuits. We prove nearly maximal lower bounds for the oblivious variant of the model.

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