There has recently been widespread discussion of whether large language models might be sentient or conscious. Should we take this idea seriously? I will break down the strongest reasons for and against. Given mainstream assumptions in the science of consciousness, there are significant obstacles to consciousness in current models: for example, their lack of recurrent processing, a global workspace, and unified agency. At the same time, it is quite possible that these obstacles will be overcome in the next decade or so. I conclude that while it is somewhat unlikely that current large language models are conscious, we should take seriously the possibility that successors to large language models may be conscious in the not-too-distant future.

翻译：近期，关于大型语言模型是否可能具有感知能力或意识的问题引发了广泛讨论。我们是否应该认真对待这一观点？本文将梳理支持与反对的最有力论据。根据意识科学的主流假设，当前模型存在显著障碍：例如缺乏循环处理机制、全局工作空间以及统一的能动性。同时，这些障碍极有可能在未来十年左右被逐步克服。结论是，尽管当前大型语言模型具备意识的可能性较低，但我们应当认真考虑，在不远的将来，大型语言模型的后续迭代版本或可具备意识。