This paper introduces a novel data-driven approach to address challenges faced by city policymakers concerning the distribution of public funds. Providing budgeting processes for improving quality of life based on objective (data-driven) evidence has been so far a missing element in policy-making. This paper focuses on a case study of 1,204 citizens in the city of Aarau, Switzerland, and analyzes survey data containing insightful indicators that can impact the legitimacy of decision-making. Our approach is twofold. On the one hand, we aim to optimize the legitimacy of policymakers' decisions by identifying the level of investment in neighborhoods and projects that offer the greatest return in legitimacy. To do so, we introduce a new context-independent legitimacy metric for policymakers. This metric allows us to distinguish decisive vs. indecisive collective preferences for neighborhoods or projects on which to invest, enabling policymakers to prioritize impactful bottom-up consultations and participatory initiatives (e.g., participatory budgeting). The metric also allows policymakers to identify the optimal number of investments in various project sectors and neighborhoods (in terms of legitimacy gain). On the other hand, we aim to offer guidance to policymakers concerning which satisfaction and participation factors influence citizens' quality of life through an accurate classification model and an evaluation of relocations. By doing so, policymakers may be able to further refine their strategy, making targeted investments with significant benefits to citizens' quality of life. These findings are expected to provide transformative insights for practicing direct democracy in Switzerland and a blueprint for policy-making to adopt worldwide.

翻译：本文提出了一种新颖的数据驱动方法，以应对城市政策制定者在公共资金分配方面面临的挑战。迄今为止，基于客观（数据驱动）证据来改善生活质量的预算制定流程，在政策制定中仍是一个缺失环节。本文聚焦于瑞士阿劳市1204名公民的案例研究，并分析了包含可影响决策合法性的深刻指标的调查数据。我们的方法包含两个方面。一方面，我们旨在通过识别能为合法性带来最大回报的社区和项目投资水平，来优化政策制定者决策的合法性。为此，我们为政策制定者引入了一种新的、与情境无关的合法性度量指标。该指标使我们能够区分公民对社区或项目投资的果断与犹豫不决的集体偏好，从而使政策制定者能优先开展具有影响力的自下而上咨询和参与式倡议（例如参与式预算编制）。该指标还允许政策制定者确定在各类项目领域和社区中的最优投资数量（就合法性增益而言）。另一方面，我们旨在通过一个精确的分类模型及对居民迁移的评估，为政策制定者提供关于哪些满意度和参与因素影响公民生活质量的指导。通过这种方式，政策制定者或可进一步优化其战略，进行能显著提升公民生活质量的目标性投资。预期这些发现将为瑞士实践直接民主提供变革性见解，并为全球范围内的政策制定提供可采纳的蓝图。