In this paper, we propose a novel association measure for longitudinal studies based on the traditional definition of relative risk. In a Markovian fashion, such a proposal takes into account the information content regarding the previous time. We derive its corresponding confidence interval by means of the Delta method having in mind the crude association between factor and event. Also, we study the properties of our uncertainty quantification scheme through an exhaustive simulation study. Our findings show that the coverage probability is quite close to the level of confidence. Finally, our proposal has a reasonable interpretation from the epidemiological as well as the statistical point of view.

翻译：本文基于传统相对风险的定义，提出了一种适用于纵向研究的新型关联度量。该度量以马尔可夫方式纳入前一时间点的信息内容。我们通过Delta方法推导出其相应的置信区间，同时考虑因子与事件之间的原始关联。此外，我们通过详尽的模拟研究探讨了不确定性量化方案的属性。结果表明，覆盖概率与置信水平非常接近。最后，该提议从流行病学和统计学角度均具有合理的解释性。