The demand for voluntary insurance against low-probability, high-impact risks is lower than expected. To assess the magnitude of the demand, we conduct a meta-analysis of contingent valuation studies using a dataset of experimentally elicited and survey-based estimates. We find that the average stated willingness to pay (WTP) for insurance is 87% of expected losses. We perform a meta-regression analysis to examine the heterogeneity in aggregate WTP across these studies. The meta-regression reveals that information about loss probability and probability levels positively influence relative willingness to pay, whereas respondents' average income and age have a negative effect. Moreover, we identify cultural sub-factors, such as power distance and uncertainty avoidance, that provided additional explanations for differences in WTP across international samples. Methodological factors related to the sampling and data collection process significantly influence the stated WTP. Our results, robust to model specification and publication bias, are relevant to current debates on stated preferences for low-probability risks management.

翻译：对低概率高影响风险的自主保险需求低于预期。为量化该需求规模，我们基于包含实验诱导与调查估计值的数据库，对条件价值评估研究开展了元分析。研究发现，保险的平均陈述支付意愿（WTP）为预期损失的87%。我们通过元回归分析探究不同研究中总体WTP的异质性。元回归结果表明，损失概率信息与概率水平对相对支付意愿具有正向影响，而受访者平均收入与年龄则产生负向效应。此外，我们识别出权力距离与不确定性规避等文化子因素，为跨国样本间的WTP差异提供了补充解释。与抽样及数据收集过程相关的方法论因素显著影响陈述WTP。本研究的结论在模型设定与发表偏倚检验中保持稳健，对当前关于低概率风险管理陈述偏好的讨论具有重要参考价值。