China accounts for one-third of the world's total carbon emissions. How to reach the peak of carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 to ensure the effective realization of the "dual-carbon" target is an important policy orientation at present. Based on the provincial panel data of ARIMA-BP model, this paper shows that the effect of energy consumption intensity effect is the main factor driving the growth of carbon emissions, per capita GDP and energy consumption structure effect are the main factors to inhibit carbon emissions, and the effect of industrial structure and population size effect is relatively small. Based on the research conclusion, the policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of energy structure, industrial structure, new quality productivity and digital economy.

翻译：中国碳排放量占全球总量的三分之一。如何在2030年前实现碳达峰、2060年前实现碳中和，确保“双碳”目标有效达成，是当前重要的政策导向。基于ARIMA-BP模型的省级面板数据分析表明：能源消费强度效应是驱动碳排放增长的主要因素，人均GDP与能源消费结构效应是抑制碳排放的主要因素，而产业结构效应与人口规模效应的影响相对较小。基于研究结论，本文从能源结构、产业结构、新质生产力及数字经济等方面提出政策建议。