Prognosis and Health Management (PHM), critical for ensuring task completion by complex systems and preventing unexpected failures, is widely adopted in aerospace, manufacturing, maritime, rail, energy, etc. However, PHM's development is constrained by bottlenecks like generalization, interpretation and verification abilities. Presently, generative artificial intelligence (AI), represented by Large Model, heralds a technological revolution with the potential to fundamentally reshape traditional technological fields and human production methods. Its capabilities, including strong generalization, reasoning, and generative attributes, present opportunities to address PHM's bottlenecks. To this end, based on a systematic analysis of the current challenges and bottlenecks in PHM, as well as the research status and advantages of Large Model, we propose a novel concept and three progressive paradigms of Prognosis and Health Management Large Model (PHM-LM) through the integration of the Large Model with PHM. Subsequently, we provide feasible technical approaches for PHM-LM to bolster PHM's core capabilities within the framework of the three paradigms. Moreover, to address core issues confronting PHM, we discuss a series of technical challenges of PHM-LM throughout the entire process of construction and application. This comprehensive effort offers a holistic PHM-LM technical framework, and provides avenues for new PHM technologies, methodologies, tools, platforms and applications, which also potentially innovates design, research & development, verification and application mode of PHM. And furthermore, a new generation of PHM with AI will also capably be realized, i.e., from custom to generalized, from discriminative to generative, and from theoretical conditions to practical applications.

翻译：预测与健康管理（PHM）对于确保复杂系统完成任务和预防意外故障至关重要，已广泛应用于航空航天、制造、海事、轨道交通、能源等领域。然而，PHM的发展受限于泛化能力、可解释性与可验证性等瓶颈。当前，以大模型为代表的生成式人工智能（AI）正引领一场技术革命，有望从根本上重塑传统技术领域和人类生产方式。其强大的泛化、推理和生成能力为突破PHM的瓶颈提供了机遇。为此，本文在系统分析PHM当前挑战与瓶颈以及大模型研究现状与优势的基础上，通过大模型与PHM的融合，提出了预测与健康管理大模型（PHM-LM）的新概念及其三种渐进式范式。随后，我们在三种范式框架下为PHM-LM提供了可行的技术路径，以增强PHM的核心能力。此外，针对PHM面临的核心问题，我们探讨了PHM-LM在构建与应用全过程中面临的一系列技术挑战。这一系统性工作构建了完整的PHM-LM技术框架，为新型PHM技术、方法、工具、平台和应用提供了发展路径，亦有望创新PHM的设计、研发、验证与应用模式。进而，基于AI的新一代PHM将得以实现，即从定制化走向泛化、从判别式走向生成式、从理论条件走向实际应用。