Electoral fraud often manifests itself as statistical anomalies in election results, yet its extent can rarely be reliably confirmed by other evidence. Here we report the complete results of municipal elections in the town of Vlasikha near Moscow, where we observe both statistical irregularities in the vote-counting transcripts and forensic evidence of tampering with ballots during their overnight storage. We evaluate two types of statistical signatures in the vote sequence that can prove batches of fraudulent ballots have been injected. We find that pairs of factory-made security bags with identical serial numbers are used in this fraud scheme. At 8 out of our 9 polling stations, the statistical and forensic evidence agrees (identifying 7 as fraudulent and 1 as honest), while at the remaining station the statistical evidence detects the fraud while the forensic one is insufficient. We also illustrate that the use of tamper-indicating seals at elections is inherently unreliable.
翻译:选举舞弊常表现为选举结果中的统计异常,但其程度很少能通过其他证据可靠证实。本文报告了莫斯科附近弗拉西哈镇市政选举的完整结果,我们在其中同时观察到计票记录中的统计异常以及选票夜间存放期间遭篡改的法医学证据。我们评估了投票序列中两种能够证明存在成批伪造选票的统计特征。研究发现该舞弊方案使用了具有相同序列号的工厂制式防伪袋。在我们调查的9个投票站中,有8个站点的统计证据与法医学证据相互印证(其中7个被判定存在舞弊,1个为诚实站点),而剩余站点虽统计证据检测到舞弊,但法医学证据不足。我们还论证了选举中使用的防篡改封条本质上并不可靠。