项目名称： 基于多状态参数的尾矿坝风险等级响应机理及随动模型研究

项目编号： No.61503345

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 自动化技术、计算机技术

项目作者： 王肖霞

作者单位： 中北大学

项目金额： 21万元

中文摘要： 尾矿坝风险等级划分是安全监测指标进行风险评估的必备前提，但现有风险等级划分标准无法随着坝体内部性能变化而动态变化，使得现有风险等级难以反映坝体的实际运行状况，严重影响着安全监测系统评估性能发挥。因此，针对现有风险等级划分标准无法根据坝体内部性能状态参数变化而做出动态调整所造成的评估效果差、甚至误判的问题，本项目以上游式尾矿坝为研究对象，以控制系统的随动原理与响应机理为科学依据，以模糊推理、可能性理论、风险评估等为技术手段，研究尾矿坝内部性能状态参数的动态特性及风险等级随其变化的响应机理，进而构建风险等级随动模型。主要内容包括：选取描述坝体内部性能变化的状态参数，研究其度量及变化趋势；剖析状态参数对坝体稳定性的影响，确定其与风险等级间关联规则，揭示风险等级响应机理；探究多状态参数间的协同性和嵌接机制，构建风险等级随动模型；研究基于风险等级随动模型的尾矿坝风险评估方法，结合实例验证模型有效性。

中文关键词： 尾矿坝监测；风险等级划分；状态参数；响应机理；随动模型

英文摘要： Risk grading of tailings dam is the prerequisite for assessing the risk of security monitoring indicators. But the existing risk grade division standard cannot make a dynamic change with the internal performance changes, which make the risk grade is difficult to reflect the actual operating situation of tailing dam and will seriously impact the assess performance of safety monitoring system. Therefore, to the problem of poor assessing result and failure which created from the existing risk grade division standard is difficult to make a dynamic adjustment with the changes of status parameter, this project taken upstream tailings dam as objects, and servo principle of control system and the response mechanism as scientific basis, the status parameter dynamic property of tailings dam and risk grade response mechanism are researched based on the fuzzy inference, probability theory and risk assessment, then build servo model. The main research contents include: the status parameters which described the performance changes inside the dam are selected, characterization; the association rules between the risk grade and status parameters are determined and risk grade response theory is revealed by dissect impact of status parameter on the dam stability; the risk grade servo model is built based on the collaborative and scarf mechanism among multi state parameters; the assessment method is researched using the servo model and the effectiveness is verified with project examples.

英文关键词： Tailings dam monitoring;Risk grading;Status parameter;Response mechanism;Servo model