项目名称： 时变效应下城市供水管网级联脆弱性分析及控制策略研究

项目编号： No.71501008

项目类型： 青年科学基金项目

立项/批准年度： 2016

项目学科： 管理科学

项目作者： 双晴

作者单位： 北京交通大学

项目金额： 17.4万元

中文摘要： 城市供水管网是维系现代城市与区域经济、社会功能的基础性工程系统。失效状态下，城市供水管网存在一种传导性的失效过程——级联失效。本项目旨在揭示时变效应下城市供水管网级联脆弱性的性能演化规律，研究脆弱性的控制策略。首先，融合复杂网络级联失效理论和城市供水管网实际运行规律，建立涵盖拓扑结构和服务功能的城市供水管网级联脆弱性模型。其次，引入时间参数，利用资源传输效率的变化，建立时变效应与级联响应关系模型，揭示时变效应下城市供水管网级联脆弱性的性能演化规律，给出大范围级联失效的关键因素。最后，分别针对短期时变效应和长期时变效应，进行级联作用下城市供水管网短期应急处置（应急预案选择与应急策略制订）和长期优化设计（空间分布优化、冗余设计、后备支持系统及灾后重建）的效果模拟和空间资源配置效率测算。项目的成果对保障城市基础设施的稳定运行，提高城市供水管网对突发灾害的抵御能力，具有重要的科学意义和实用价值。

中文关键词： 级联失效；时变效应；脆弱性；复杂网络演化；控制策略

英文摘要： Urban water distribution network (UWDN) is one of the critical infrastructure systems to maintain the city service and the regional economy. Cascading failures is a conductive failure process. The research aims to reveal the vulnerability evaluation process of UWDN under cascading failures with time-varying effect. The vulnerability information is used to support control strategies. Firstly, with the fusion of cascading failure theory and the operation of UWDN, a model which combines topology structure and service function is built to evaluate UWDN vulnerability. Secondly, the time parameter is introduced in the vulnerability analysis. The vulnerability evaluation process is described by a time-varying and cascade failure model which conducted by the variation in resource efficiency. The critical component of large-scale failure is provided. Finally, the short-term emergency disposals (i.e., the choice of emergency solutions and the development of emergency strategies) and long-term optimization designs (i.e. spatial distribution optimization, redundancy design, back-up system, and post-disaster reconstruction) are simulated to measure the improve effect and spatial resources reallocation efficiency. The findings from this research can be used to guarantee the stability of infrastructure systems and enhance the resist ability towards disaster, which is significant in science and valuable in practice.

英文关键词： cascading failure;time-varying effect ;vulnerability;complex network evolution;control strategies