The NBA draft can incentivize teams to deliberately lose. We propose a draft mechanism that is practical, incentive-compatible, and favors weaker teams. The Carry-Over Lottery Allocation (COLA) framework represents a paradigm shift in evaluating team quality, replacing single season standings with multi-year playoff outcomes. In our proposed mechanism, every non-playoff team receives the same number of lottery tickets, removing incentives to lose. Lottery tickets carry over to future lotteries, but playoff success or winning a top pick diminishes a team's accumulated tickets. The lottery is familiar and preserves fan engagement. Implementation challenges are addressed to demonstrate feasibility, including transitioning to COLA, handling trades, and accommodating draft classes of varying strength. For exceptionally strong classes, teams may prefer the lottery to the playoffs. We provide a solution, employing a truth-elicitation mechanism to identify such years and expanding lottery eligibility to include as many playoff teams as necessary to preserve incentive compatibility.
翻译:NBA选秀可能激励球队故意输球。我们提出了一种实用、激励相容且有利于弱势球队的选秀机制。结转彩票分配(COLA)框架代表了评估球队质量范式的转变,以多年季后赛结果取代单赛季排名。在我们提出的机制中,每支非季后赛球队获得相同数量的彩票,消除了输球动机。彩票可结转至未来抽签,但季后赛成功或赢得高顺位会减少球队累积的彩票。该抽签机制为球迷所熟悉,保持了球迷参与度。我们通过解决实施挑战来论证其可行性,包括向COLA过渡、处理交易以及适应不同强度的选秀年份。对于实力异常强劲的选秀年份,球队可能更倾向于抽签而非季后赛。我们提供了一种解决方案,采用真相诱导机制识别此类年份,并将彩票资格扩展至必要数量的季后赛球队,以保持激励相容性。