We modelled emergence and spread of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Australia between December 2021 and June 2022. This pandemic stage exhibited a diverse epidemiological profile with emergence of co-circulating sub-lineages of Omicron, further complicated by differences in social distancing behaviour which varied over time. Our study delineated distinct phases of the Omicron-associated pandemic stage, and retrospectively quantified the adoption of social distancing measures, fluctuating over different time periods in response to the observable incidence dynamics. We also modelled the corresponding disease burden, in terms of hospitalisations, intensive care unit occupancy, and mortality. Supported by good agreement between simulated and actual health data, our study revealed that the nonlinear dynamics observed in the daily incidence and disease burden were determined not only by introduction of sub-lineages of Omicron, but also by the fluctuating adoption of social distancing measures. Our high-resolution model can be used in design and evaluation of public health interventions during future crises.

翻译：2021年12月至2022年6月,我们在澳大利亚模拟了SARS-CoV-2的Omicron变体的出现和传播。这一流行病阶段呈现了各种不同的流行病学特征,出现了共同环绕的Omicron子线,由于社会偏移行为随时间而变化,使情况更加复杂。我们的研究描述了与Omicro有关的流行病阶段的不同阶段,追溯性地量化了采取社会偏移措施的情况,随着可观测到的发生率动态在不同时期波动。我们还模拟了相应的疾病负担,包括住院、密集护理单位占用和死亡率。在模拟和实际健康数据之间达成良好协议的支持下,我们的研究显示,在日常发病率和疾病负担中观察到的非线性动态不仅取决于采用Omicron分线,而且还取决于采用社会偏移措施的波动性。我们的高分辨率模型可用于设计和评估未来危机期间的公共卫生干预措施。