The May 2024 solar superstorm highlighted the vulnerability of rapidly expanding low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite networks to severe space weather events. To systematically evaluate LEO network resilience, we introduce an open-source tool, CosmicDancePro. It enables a comprehensive analysis of the effects of solar storms in the LEO satellite network. It integrates real-world multimodal datasets, including space weather measurements from several satellites, upper-atmospheric density conditions from data-driven and high-fidelity physics-based models, and LEO satellite trajectory and LEO network measurement traces to quantify orbital decay driven by enhanced atmospheric density and network connectivity degradation. We utilize CosmicDancePro to analyze the Starlink constellation's behavior during two recent major solar storms. First, we identify the specific fleet management strategies Starlink adopts during the May 2024 solar superstorm and how they differ from its regular orbit-correction strategy. Second, we identify the mechanisms driving the previously unexplained 'W'-shaped altitude variation pattern across orbital planes of LEO constellations. Finally, our network-layer analysis quantifies the connectivity degradation during these storms, revealing transient disruptions that include repetitive short-lived outages, reconfiguration latency spikes above 500 ms, up to 60% increase in uplink loss, distorted diurnal latency patterns, and a 10+ Mbps drop in end-user data rates during storm peaks.
翻译:2024年5月的太阳超级风暴凸显了快速扩张的低地球轨道(LEO)卫星网络对剧烈空间天气事件的脆弱性。为系统评估LEO网络韧性,我们推出了开源工具CosmicDancePro。该工具可全面分析太阳风暴对LEO卫星网络的影响,整合了多模态真实世界数据集,包括多颗卫星的空间天气测量数据、基于数据驱动与高保真物理模型的上层大气密度条件,以及LEO卫星轨迹与网络测量轨迹,以量化大气密度增强驱动的轨道衰减与网络连接性降级。我们利用CosmicDancePro分析了星链星座在近期两次重大太阳风暴期间的行为。首先,我们识别了星链在2024年5月太阳超级风暴中采取的具体舰队管理策略,及其与常规轨道修正策略的差异。其次,我们揭示了此前未得到解释的LEO星座轨道平面间“W”形高度变化模式的驱动机制。最后,我们的网络层分析量化了这些风暴期间的连接性降级,揭示了包括重复性短暂中断、重配置延迟峰值超过500毫秒、上行链路损失增加高达60%、昼夜延迟模式扭曲,以及风暴高峰期终端用户数据速率下降超过10 Mbps在内的瞬态中断现象。