The Tigray War was an armed conflict that took place primarily in the Tigray region of northern Ethiopia from November 3, 2020 to November 2, 2022. Given the importance of agriculture in Tigray to livelihoods and food security, determining the impact of the war on cultivated area is critical, but quantifying this impact was difficult due to restricted movement within and into the region due to conflict-driven insecurity and blockages. Using satellite imagery and statistical area estimation techniques, we assessed changes in crop cultivation area in Tigray before and during the war. Our findings show that cultivated area was largely stable between 2020-2021 despite the widespread impacts of the war. We estimated 1,132,000 +/- 133,000 hectares of cultivation in pre-war 2020 compared to 1,217,000 +/- 132,000 hectares in mid-war 2021. Comparing changes inside and outside of a 5 km buffer around conflict events, we found a slightly higher upper confidence limit of cropland loss within the buffer (0-3%) compared to outside the buffer (0-1%). Our results support other reports that despite widespread war-related disruptions, Tigrayan farmers were largely able to sustain cultivation. Our study demonstrates the capability of remote sensing combined with machine learning and statistical techniques to provide timely, transparent area estimates for monitoring food security in regions inaccessible due to conflict.

翻译：提格雷战争是一场武装冲突，主要发生在2020年11月3日至2022年11月2日期间的埃塞俄比亚北部提格雷地区。鉴于农业对提格雷地区的生计和粮食安全至关重要，确定战争对种植面积的影响尤为关键，但由于冲突导致的不安全局势和封锁限制了该地区内外的行动自由，量化这一影响变得困难。通过卫星图像和统计面积估算技术，我们评估了提格雷地区在战前和战争期间作物种植面积的变化。研究结果显示，尽管战争带来了广泛影响，2020-2021年间的种植面积基本保持稳定。我们估算出战前2020年的种植面积为1,132,000 ± 133,000公顷，而战时中期2021年则为1,217,000 ± 132,000公顷。通过比较冲突事件周围5公里缓冲区内外的变化，我们发现缓冲区内的耕地损失上限置信度（0-3%）略高于缓冲区外的结果（0-1%）。我们的研究结果支持其他报告的观点，即尽管战争相关干扰广泛存在，提格雷农民仍基本能够维持种植活动。本研究展示了遥感技术结合机器学习与统计方法，在冲突导致无法进入的地区，为监测粮食安全提供及时、透明面积估算的能力。