The Perception of Security (PoS) refers to people's opinions about security or insecurity in a place or situation. While surveys have traditionally been the primary means to capture such perceptions, they need to be improved in their ability to offer real-time monitoring or predictive insights into future security perceptions. Recent evidence suggests that social network content can provide complementary insights into quantifying these perceptions. However, the challenge of accurately predicting these perceptions, with the capacity to anticipate them, still needs to be explored. This article introduces an innovative approach to PoS within short time frames using social network data. Our model incorporates external factors that influence the publication and reposting of content related to security perceptions. Our results demonstrate that this proposed model achieves competitive predictive performance and maintains a high degree of interpretability regarding the factors influencing security perceptions. This research contributes to understanding how temporal patterns and external factors impact the anticipation of security perceptions, providing valuable insights for proactive security planning.

翻译：安全感（PoS）指人们对特定地点或情境安全与否的主观看法。虽然传统上调查问卷是捕捉此类感知的主要手段，但其在实时监测或预测未来安全感知方面存在明显局限。最新证据表明，社交网络内容可为量化这些感知提供补充性见解。然而，如何准确预测并具备预判这些感知的能力仍是亟待探索的课题。本文提出一种基于社交网络数据的创新方法，可在短时间窗口内预测安全感。该模型融合了影响安全感知相关内容发布与转发行为的外部因素。实验结果表明，本模型在保持较强竞争力的预测性能的同时，对影响安全感的关键因素具有高度可解释性。本研究有助于理解时间模式与外部因素如何共同影响安全感知的预判机制，为主动安全规划提供了重要参考。