Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of $\approx 0.2-0.5$ roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used.

翻译：Maruotti 等人(2022年)使用记分回收法估计各国猴子天花感染的真正数量,这些方法有根本的缺陷;不可能仅仅根据报告的一流病例估计不足;根据理查斯累计发病率曲线进行的模拟表明,就合理的流行病参数而言,拟议方法估计的确定比率为0.2-0.5美元,这与真实的确定比率无关,不应使用这些方法。