The trade algorithm, which includes the curveball and fastball implementations, is the state-of-the-art for uniformly sampling r x c binary matrices with fixed row and column sums. The mixing time of the trade algorithm is currently unknown, although 5r is currently used as a heuristic. We propose a distribution-based approach to estimating the mixing time, but which also can return a sample of matrices that are nearly guaranteed to be uniformly randomly sampled. In numerical experiments on matrices that vary by size, fill, and row and column sum distributions, we find that the upper bound on mixing time is at least 10r, and that it increases as a function of both c and the fraction of cells containing a 1.

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