The best empirical research in political science clearly defines substantive parameters of interest, presents a set of assumptions that guarantee its identification, and uses an appropriate estimator. We argue for the importance of explicitly integrating rigorous theory into this process and focus on the advantages of doing so. By integrating theoretical structure into one's empirical strategy, researchers can quantify the effects of competing mechanisms, consider the ex-ante effects of new policies, extrapolate findings to new environments, estimate model-specific theoretical parameters, evaluate the fit of a theoretical model, and test competing models that aim to explain the same phenomena. As a guide to such a methodology, we provide an overview of structural estimation, including formal definitions, implementation suggestions, examples, and comparisons to other methods.
翻译:政治学领域最优的实证研究需明确界定关键实质性参数、构建确保其可识别性的假设体系,并采用恰当的估计方法。我们主张在此过程中系统整合严谨理论的重要性,并聚焦于其方法论优势。通过将理论结构融入实证策略,研究者可实现:量化竞争性机制效应、评估新政的事前影响、将研究发现外推至新情境、估算模型特定理论参数、评价理论模型拟合优度,以及检验旨在解释同一现象的竞争性模型。作为此类方法论的实践指南,本文系统阐释了结构估计的理论框架,涵盖形式化定义、实施建议、典型范例及与其他方法的比较分析。